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Real Madrid has won each of the last two UEFA Champions League titles and three of the last four. The Spanish club will try to come out on top of the UEFA Champions League again this year with a win in the final this Saturday against Liverpool.
Madrid is a -165 favorite to lift the trophy in Kiev at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Liverpool is going off as a +135 underdog to win the match on Saturday. On the three-way line for regulation plus injury time, Real Madrid is a +120 favorite over Liverpool (+205 to win, +270 to draw). Of Real Madrid’s 12 UEFA Champions League titles, nine of the final games have been won in regulation.Barcelona won its third La Liga Championship in four years this season, taking back the league’s title from Real Madrid. But after that disappointing result in La Liga, another championship in the UEFA Champions League would go a long way in easing that pain.
Real Madrid upset Paris Saint-Germain in convincing fashion in the Round of 16, winning both legs to score an aggregate victory of 5-2 over the French Ligue 1 champions. Madrid also picked up aggregate wins over Italy’s Serie A champions Juventus and Germany’s Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich to advance to the final.
Like Real Madrid, Liverpool is hoping to make up for failing to capture its league title by earning some hardware in the UEFA Champions League. In English Premier League play, Liverpool overcame a slow start of 3-4-2 to finish the season on an 18-8-3 run.
Liverpool won its group in the UEFA Champions League to advance into the knockout stage, where it dispatched of Porto, English Premier League champion Manchester City and Roma to advance to this point.
Saturday’s total is set at three goals. The OVER is 8-3 in Real Madrid’s last 11 games and 7-3-1 in Liverpool’s last 11.
When these two clubs last met in the 2014 UEFA Champions League group stage, Real Madrid defeated Liverpool 3-0 on the road and 1-0 at home. Liverpool has done well to get to this game including its impressive upset over Manchester City, but Real Madrid’s recent form and path to this point make the defending champions a clear favorite.
For more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news check out the OddsShark podcast with Jon Campbell and Andrew Avery. Subscribe on iTunes or listen to it at So how do you beat the threepeaters elect, the most successful team in the competition’s history, sporting more individual and collective trophies than you can shake a stick at? It’s undoubtedly a daunting task, but thankfully not an impossible one. Zidane’s team have conceded 44 goals in the league this season, over 60 goals in all competitions, and rarely — in less than 30% of their games, in fact — keep a clean sheet. They can be got at, in a number of ways, is what I’m saying, and worse teams than Liverpool have been able to.
An emerging trend for this Real side is the tendency to concede early goals. This doesn’t necessarily spell disaster, as they are always liable to get a couple themselves, but a propensity for starting slow and digging a hole for themselves has been emerging this season. On Saturday, they will face one of the fastest starting teams in the game, and as both Manchester City and Roma have found out, a slow start against this Liverpool side can make the subsequent uphill climb insurmountable. Blitzing Real from the opening whistle could well set the stage for victory.
The attacking disposition of Zidane’s disciples makes them exceptionally dangerous going forward, but also leaves holes to be exploited at the other end. Marcelo can be a menace on the left, and Toni Kroos and Luka Modric are two of the best all-purpose passers in the world, but none of the three are defensive behemoths. Space is often left available both horizontally and vertically between Marcelo and his centre-back, and Kroos and Modric — the former in particular — will rarely cover the half-space in front of their backline with much gusto.
The result is that the extraordinarily athletic and talented — but still human — pairing of Sergio Ramos and Raphaël Varane are required to cover a lot of ground to put out fires. Incidentally, the areas in which these fires occur are where Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino thrive, and the battle between Liverpool’s top scorers and Real’s defensive stalwarts for dominion of that space could well determine the game.
It is expected that Zidane will start defensive midfielder Casemiro on Saturday in order to provide cover for his more creative outlets. The Brazilian sat out the majority of the second leg against Bayern Munich, and Real struggled mightily to protect their backline in his absence. While every player on the team is excellent on the ball, the 26-year old is not the most versatile passer, and will occasionally attempt to dribble his way out of trouble if his first and second option are cut off. This provides an opportunity for Liverpool’s aggressive counter press to win the ball in a dangerous area, and setting their pressing traps up to catch the number 14 out could pay off massively.
Another effect of having so many offensive-minded players in your team is that whenever the opposition has the ball, the majority of your players are waiting for the counter to set them free, anticipating possession to change hands so they can do what they do best. As a result, Real Madrid tend to become a little light on numbers in their own area, as neither Kroos, Modric or Kovacic do particularly well at tracking off-the-ball runners all the way home.
Both goals conceded — as well as a handful of chances — in the 2-2 draw with Bayern displayed how los Blancos’ attacking mind-set leave them vulnerable when teams dare to overload their 18-yard box. Pushing fullbacks or midfielders into the Madrid area should allow Liverpool to produce a numerical advantage in decisive moments.
Finally, there is the counter attack. With so many players pushed up the pitch, there will be spaces for the Reds to break into, particularly in the channels between Real’s centre-backs and fullbacks, and lacking genuine pace in midfield the Spaniards are at risk in transition. Zidane’s fearsome offense forces most teams to sit deep with nine or ten players behind the ball, making a counter attack difficult, but if Klopp’s men are brave enough to to trust their organisation and let Firmino and Salah be an outlet in these spaces, chances can be created against a team out of balance.Real Madrid are not a perfect team — though they are a very, very good one with potential match winners throughout the side. If Liverpool are to have any chance of lifting the Champions League trophy for the sixth time on Saturday, they will need to find the right balance of discipline and bravery, as well as identifying areas of weakness and executing an assault on them. This is not an impossible task by any means, but should the Reds succeed, it will have been a monumental achievement for a side whose pre-season expectations stopped at the round of 16.
All that is left now is to go out and play fucking football.BBC Radio 5 live’s coverage of the Champions League final starts at midday on Saturday, with kick-off at 19:45 BST. Mark Lawrenson is part of their commentary team in Kiev.
I had never been as nervous before a game as I was before my first European Cup final in 1984. Most of the Liverpool team felt the same way.
